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UID:pretalx-2026-JFWEF7@conferences.acspri.org.au
DTSTART;TZID=AEST:20261125T154500
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DESCRIPTION:Estimating the prevalence of smoking and vaping in culturally a
 nd linguistically diverse communities using Multilevel Regression and Post
 stratification\nDinah Lope\, Andrew Ward\, Emily Baker\, Eve Mitsopoulos\n
 \nTrack: Computational social science\nKeywords: Small Domain Estimation\,
  Multilevel Regression and Poststratification\n\nTraditional survey estima
 tion techniques perform well when sample sizes are sufficiently large acro
 ss broad geographic regions or demographic groups. In these settings\, res
 ponse proportions can be estimated reliably using established methods (Val
 liant et al.\, 2018). However\, these approaches often perform poorly for 
 small geographic areas or population subgroups\, where limited sample size
 s can lead to unstable\, highly variable estimates that may not accurately
  reflect the target population.\n\nTo address this challenge\, researchers
  increasingly use model-based approaches that combine survey data with aux
 iliary information from sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistic
 s Census of Population and Housing. This paper presents Multilevel Regress
 ion and Poststratification (MRP) as a method for producing small-domain es
 timates. MRP consists of two key stages (Gelman & Little\, 1997\; Park et 
 al.\, 2006\; Downes et al.\, 2018). First\, a multilevel regression model 
 is fitted to survey data to estimate the relationship between respondent c
 haracteristics and survey outcomes. Second\, poststratification adjusts th
 ese model-based estimates using the population distribution of those chara
 cteristics within each domain. By combining survey responses with populati
 on-level demographic data\, MRP borrows strength across related groups and
  domains\, producing robust estimates for small populations and geographic
  areas where direct survey estimates may be unreliable.\n\nWe demonstrate 
 this approach using the 2022 Victorian Smoking and Health Survey\, a cross
 -sectional telephone survey of a population-representative sample of Victo
 rians aged 18 years and older. Prevalence was estimated by main language s
 poken at home\, country of birth and year of arrival in Australia. \n\nOur
  contribution supports the ongoing development of methodologies aimed at i
 mproving the accuracy and relevance of population estimates in domains whe
 re traditional survey methods are constrained by declining response rates\
 , limited coverage\, and the challenges of reaching specific population gr
 oups. In particular\, the findings can help identify priority CALD communi
 ties for targeted smoking cessation initiatives in Victoria – guiding co
 mmunity engagement and service delivery planning to maximise the reach and
  effectiveness of cessation efforts in populations with the greatest need.
DTSTAMP:20261013T070120Z
LOCATION:Cullen Room
SUMMARY:Estimating the prevalence of smoking and vaping in culturally and l
 inguistically diverse communities using Multilevel Regression and Poststra
 tification - Dinah Lope
URL:https://conferences.acspri.org.au/2026/talk/JFWEF7/
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